Whiskey trend is sweeping the Chinese market.
Whiskey has achieved steady growth in the Chinese market over the past few years. According to the data provided by Euromonitor, a well-known research institution, in the past five years, China’s whiskey consumption and consumption have maintained a compound annual growth rate of 10.5% and 14.5%, respectively.
At the same time, according to Euromonitor’s forecast, whiskey will continue to maintain a “double-digit” compound growth rate in China in the next five years.
Previously, Euromonitor had released the consumption scale of China’s alcoholic products market in 2021. Among them, the market scales of alcoholic beverages, spirits, and whiskey were 51.67 billion liters, 4.159 billion liters, and 18.507 million liters respectively. liters, 3.948 billion liters, and 23.552 million liters.
It is not difficult to see that when the overall consumption of alcoholic beverages and spirits shows a downward trend, whiskey still maintains a trend of steady growth against the trend. The wine industry’s recent research results from South China, East China and other markets have also confirmed this trend.
“The growth of whiskey in recent years has been very obvious. In 2020, we imported two large cabinets (whiskey), which doubled in 2021. Although this year has been greatly affected by the environment (cannot be sold for several months), (our company’s The volume of whiskey) can still be the same as last year.” Zhou Chuju, general manager of Guangzhou Shengzuli Trading Co., Ltd., which has entered the whiskey business since 2020, told the wine industry.
Another Guangzhou wine merchant engaged in the multi-category business of sauce wine, whiskey, etc. said that sauce wine will be hot in the Guangdong market in 2020 and 2021, but the cooling of sauce wine in 2022 will make many sauce wine consumers turn to whiskey. , which has greatly increased the consumption of mid-to-high-end whiskey. He has diverted many of the previous resources of the sauce wine business to whiskey, and expects that the company’s whiskey business will achieve a growth of 40-50% in 2022.
In the Fujian market, whiskey also maintained a rapid growth rate. “Whiskey in the Fujian market is growing rapidly. In the past, whiskey and brandy accounted for 10% and 90% of the market, but now they each account for 50%,” said Xue Dezhi, chairman of Fujian Weida Luxury Famous Wine.
“Diageo’s Fujian market will grow from 80 million in 2019 to 180 million in 2021. I estimate that it will reach 250 million this year, basically an annual growth of more than 50%.” Xue Dezhi also mentioned.
In addition to the increase in sales and sales, the rise of “Red Zhuan Wei” and whiskey bars also confirms the hot whiskey market in South China. A number of whiskey dealers in South China unanimously stated that currently in South China, the proportion of “Red Zhuanwei” dealers has reached 20-30%. “The number of whiskey bars in South China has grown significantly in recent years.” Kuang Yan, general manager of Guangzhou Blue Spring Liquor Co., Ltd., said. As a company that started importing wines in the 1990s and is also a member of “Red Zhuanwei”, it has turned its attention to whiskey since this year.
Wine industry experts found in this survey that Shanghai, Guangdong, Fujian and other coastal areas are still the mainstream markets and “bridgeheads” for whiskey consumers, but the whiskey consumption atmosphere in markets such as Chengdu and Wuhan is gradually becoming stronger, and consumers in some areas have begun to Ask about whiskey.
“In the past two years, the whiskey atmosphere in Chengdu has gradually become stronger, and few people took the initiative to ask (whiskey) before.” said Chen Xun, founder of Dumeitang Tavern in Chengdu.
From the data and market perspective, whiskey has achieved rapid growth in the past three years since 2019, and the diversification of consumption scenarios and high cost performance are the key factors driving this growth.
In the eyes of industry insiders, different from the limitations of other alcoholic beverages in terms of consumption scenarios, whiskey drinking methods and scenarios are extremely diverse.
“Whiskey is very personalized. You can choose the right whiskey in the right scene. You can add ice, make cocktails, and it is also suitable for various consumption scenes such as pure drinks, bars, restaurants, and cigars.” Whiskey Branch of Shenzhen Alcohol Industry Association Chairman Wang Hongquan said.
“There is no fixed consumption situation, and the alcohol content can be reduced. Drinking is easy, stress-free, and has a variety of styles. Every lover can find the taste and aroma that suits him. It is very random.” Luo Zhaoxing, sales manager of Sichuan Xiaoyi International Trading Co., Ltd. also said.
In addition, high cost performance is also a unique advantage of whiskey. “A large part of the reason why whiskey is so popular is its high cost performance. A 750ml bottle of 12-year-old first-line brand products only sells for more than 300 yuan, while a 500ml liquor of the same age costs more than 800 yuan or even more. It’s still a non-first-tier brand.” Xue Dezhi said.
A noteworthy phenomenon is that in the process of communicating with wine industry experts, almost every distributor and practitioner is using this example to explain to wine industry experts.
The underlying logic of whiskey’s high cost performance is the high concentration of whiskey brands. “Whiskey brands are very concentrated. There are more than 140 distilleries in Scotland and more than 200 distilleries in the world. Consumers have a higher awareness of the brand.” Kuang Yan said. “The core element of the development of a wine category is the brand system. Whiskey has a strong brand attribute, and the market structure is supported by brand value.” Xi Kang, executive director of the China Non-staple Food Circulation Association, also said.
However, under the development status of the whiskey industry, the quality of some medium and low-priced whiskeys can still be recognized by consumers.
Compared with other spirits, whiskey may be the category with the most obvious youth trend. Some people in the industry told the wine industry that on the one hand, the multiple attributes of whiskey meet the current consumption needs of the new generation of young people who pursue individuality and trendiness; .
Market feedback also confirms this feature of the whiskey market. According to the research results of wine industry experts from multiple markets, the price range of 300-500 yuan is still the mainstream consumption price range of whiskey. “The price range of whiskey is widely distributed, so more mass consumers can afford it.” Euromonitor also said.
In addition to young people, middle-aged high-net-worth people are also another mainstream consumer group of whiskey. Different from the logic of attracting young people, the attraction of whiskey to this class mainly lies in its own product characteristics and financial attributes.
Statistics from Euromonitor show that the top five companies in the Chinese whiskey market share are Pernod Ricard, Diageo, Suntory, Eddington, and Brown-Forman, with market shares of 26.45%, 17.52%, 9.46%, and 6.49% respectively. , 7.09%. At the same time, Euromonitor predicts that in the next few years, the absolute value growth of China’s whiskey market imports will mainly be contributed by Scotch whiskey.
Scotch whiskey is undoubtedly the biggest winner in this round of whiskey craze. According to data from the Scotch Whiskey Association (SWA), the export value of Scotch whiskey to the Chinese market will increase by 84.9% in 2021.
In addition, American and Japanese whiskey also showed strong growth. In particular, Riwei has shown a vigorous development trend far exceeding the entire whiskey industry in multiple channels such as retail and catering. In the past five years, in terms of sales volume, Riwei’s compound annual growth rate has been close to 40%.
At the same time, Euromonitor also believes that the growth of whiskey in China in the next five years is still optimistic and can reach a double-digit compound annual growth rate. Single malt whiskey is the engine of sales growth, and sales growth of high-end and ultra-high-end whiskey will also increase. Ahead of low-end and mid-range products.
In this context, many industry insiders have quite positive expectations for the future of the Chinese whiskey market.
“At present, the backbone of whiskey consumption is 20-year-old young people. In the next 10 years, they will gradually grow into the mainstream of society. When this generation grows up, the consumption power of whiskey will become more prominent.” Wang Hongquan analyzed.
“Whiskey still has a lot of room for development, especially in third- and fourth-tier cities. I am personally very optimistic about the future development potential of spirits in China.” Li Youwei said.
“Whiskey will continue to grow in the future, and it is conceivable to double in about five years.” Zhou Chuju also said.
At the same time, Kuang Yan analyzed that: “In foreign countries, well-known wineries such as Macallan and Glenfiddich are expanding their production capacity to accumulate power for the next 10 or even 20 years. There are also a lot of capital in China starting to deploy upstream, such as acquisitions and equity participation. Upstream manufacturers. Capital has a very keen sense of smell and has a signal effect on the development of many industries, so I am very optimistic about the development of whiskey in the next 10 years.”
But at the same time, some people in the industry are skeptical about whether the current Chinese whiskey market can continue to grow rapidly.
Xue Dezhi believes that the pursuit of whiskey by capital still needs the test of time. “Whiskey is still a category that needs time to settle. Scottish law stipulates that whiskey must be aged for a minimum of 3 years, and it takes 12 years for whiskey to be sold at a price of 300 yuan in the market. How much capital can wait for such a long time? So wait and see.”
At the same time, two current phenomena have also brought the enthusiasm for whiskey back slightly. On the one hand, the growth rate of whiskey imports has narrowed since the beginning of this year; on the other hand, in the past three months, brands represented by Macallan and Suntory have seen prices drop.
“The general environment is not good, consumption is downgraded, the market lacks confidence, and the supply exceeds demand. Therefore, since the past three months, the prices of brands with higher premiums have been adjusted.” Wang Hongquan said.
For the future of the Chinese whiskey market, time is the best weapon to test all conclusions. Where will whiskey go in China? Readers and friends are welcome to leave comments.
Post time: Nov-19-2022